基于ARIMA模型的我国长三角地区卫生人力资源需求预测分析

Predictive analysis of healthcare human resources demand in the Yangtze River Delta Region based on the ARIMA model

目的分析长三角地区卫生技术人员发展现状,对长三角地区卫生技术人员需求进行预测分析,以期为各地合理制定卫生人力资源政策、推进我国长三角地区“医疗卫生一体化”提供参考依据。方法选取1990—2018年长三角地区卫生技术人员相关数据,分别建立ARIMA模型对该地区的卫生技术人员需求进行预测。结果所建立的各项模型平均误差均低于10%,预测模型拟合度较好,预测精度较高,可以用其进行外推预测。2019—2025年,长三角地区卫生技术人员需求量保持稳定增长,但不同地区之间差距相对较大。结论各地应加大对卫生技术人员的培养力度,提高卫生技术人员的专业化水平;建立长三角地区卫生人力资源共享机制,促进高级卫生人力资源流动;打破长三角地区医疗卫生发展壁垒,不断缩小长三角地区医疗服务水平差距。

Objective To analyze the current status of healthcare professionals in the Yangtze River Delta and predict and analyze their needs in an attempt to provide reference for formulating healthcare human resource policies and promote"medical service and health integration"in this region.Methods Data of healthcare professionals in the Yangtze River Delta region from 1990 to 2018 were selected,and ARIMA models were established to predict the demand for healthcare professionals in this region.Results The average errors of the established models were less than 10%and the prediction model had a high fitness degree and accuracy,which can be used to extrapolate predictions.From 2019 to 2025,the demand for healthcare professionals in the Yangtze River Delta region will maintain a steady growth,but with significant differences among regions.Conclusion All regions should intensify personnel training and improve their professional level,establish a healthcare human resource sharing mechanism in the Yangtze River Delta region to promote the flow of high-level healthcare personnel.At the same time,the barriers to medical and health development should be eliminated,narrowing the gap in medical services within this region.