亚洲高山区雪崩灾害时空分布特点及其诱发因素分析

Analysis of Spatio-Temporal Distribution Characteristics of Snow Avalanche Disaster and Its Triggering Factors in the High Mountain Asia

雪崩灾害严重威胁亚洲高山区社会经济发展,掌握亚洲高山区雪崩灾害的时空分布特点及其影响因素对雪崩灾害防治具有重要的理论及现实意义。本研究采用文献分析、数据整理等方式,收集了2009—2019年间亚洲高山区的雪崩灾害数据,基于雪崩灾害活跃指数定量分析不同时空雪崩的活跃度,阐明亚洲高山区雪崩灾害的时空分布特点及其影响因素。结果展示:(1)10月到次年4月为亚洲高山区雪崩灾害危险期,2月下旬和3月为雪崩的危险性和活跃度的高峰期。(2)由于积雪特性和气候的差异,不同山区的雪崩活跃度和受灾程度呈现显著差异。64%的雪崩灾害事件发生在帕米尔高原和克什米尔地区为中心的天山、西喜马拉雅山、兴都库什山区,该区域的雪崩造成的伤亡人数占总伤亡人数的78%。(3)多数雪崩灾害事件是由自然因素(强降雪、温度剧增、雨夹雪、地震和风等)诱发,其中强降雪诱发的雪崩灾害最多,其次为春季快速升温诱发的雪崩。本研究可为评估在气候变化下亚洲高山区雪崩灾害未来发展趋势和应对防治策略的研究提供数据支持。

Avalanche disaster is a serious threat to the social and economic development in the High Mountain Asia.Evaluating the spatial and temporal distribution of avalanche disaster in the region and its influencing factorscan help in understanding the patterns of occurence of avalanche disaster under climate change and providing important theoretical and practical support for avalanche disaster prevention.The avalanche disaster dataset collected from literature in the High Mountain Asia from 2009 to 2019.The degree of avalanche activity was analyzed quantitatively based on avalanche disaster activity index to better understand the spatio-temporal distribution characteristics of avalanche disaster and its influencing factors in this study.The results show that the avalanche events actively occurred during the period from October to following April,with a peak in late February and March.There were significant differences in the degree of avalanche activity and hazard levels in each sub-region of the High Mountain Asia due to different characteristics of snowpack and climate.64%of these avalanches occurred in the K-H-T-K region(Karakorum,Hindukush,Tianshan Mountains and west Himalayas)centered on the Pamir and Kashmir,where avalanches account for 68%of the total casualties.Most of the avalanche disasters in the study area were induced by natural factors(heavy snowfall,temperature rise,earthquake and strong wind,etc.)and human activities(skiing,mountaineering,mining and military activities).Heavy snowfall triggered the most avalanches,followed by rapid rise in temperature in spring.The findings help in assessing the risk of avalanche,and proposing potential adaptation strategies in the High Mountain Asia under climate change.