明清时期渭南地区旱灾的多尺度变化特征及其对气候变化的响应

Multi-scale Features of Drought Disasters and Response to Climate Change in Weinan Region during Ming and Qing Dynasties

研究了明清时期渭南地区旱灾的多尺度变化特征及其与气候变化的关系,为揭示该区旱灾的发生机制提供科学依据。利用《中国三千年气象记录总集》等历史文献资料,对明清时期(1368~1911年)渭南地区的旱灾史料进行了统计分析,采用集合经验模态分解(EEMD)等方法研究了明清时期该区旱灾的多尺度变化特征及其对气候变化的响应。结果表明:(1)明清时期渭南地区旱灾总体上表现为先下降后上升的变化趋势,以全区域的特大旱灾为主,明朝崇祯大旱、清朝康雍奇灾和光绪丁戊奇荒等历史极端干旱事件在渭南地区均有较好记录。(2)渭南地区旱灾在时间尺度上存在着显著的准3 a、准6 a和准8 a的年际周期,准11 a、准17 a、准28 a和准84 a的年代际周期以及准181 a和准363 a的百年际尺度周期,分别与厄尔尼诺的2~8 a周期、太阳活动的11 a周期和太平洋年代际振荡的20~30 a周期相对应。(3)明清时期渭南地区旱灾在年际尺度上的振荡信号可能要强于在年代际和百年际尺度上的振荡信号。(4)渭南地区旱灾的频次序列与我国同时期冬季温度变化序列总体上较为一致,与该时期北半球的温度变化基本同向,但不完全同步。明清时期渭南地区旱灾在时间尺度上存在着显著的多尺度变化特征,并对气候变化具有明显的响应。

Multi-scale features of drought disasters and its relationship with climate change were studied to provide scientific basis for revealing the mechanism of drought disasters in Weinan region during Ming and Qing Dynasties.Drought disasters in historical documents of“A compendium of Chinese Meteorological records of the last 3000 years”were counted,analyzed and sorted in Weinan region during the Ming and Qing dynasties.Multi-scale features of drought disasters and response to climate change were discussed in this region during 1368~1911 years by ensemble empirical mode decomposition(EEMD),the wavelet analysis and so on.The results showed that drought disasters in Weinan region during the Ming and Qing dynasties showed a trend of decline first and then rise with the major regional drought.Historical extreme drought events such as‘Chongzhen drought’at the end of the Ming dynasty,‘Kang-Yong disaster’during the Qing dynasty and‘Ding-Wu famine’during Guangxu’s reign have been well recorded in Weinan region.There existed obviously interannual,interdecadal and centennial oscillation of quasi-3-year,quasi-6-year,quasi-8-year scales and quasi-11-year,quasi-17-year,quasi-28-year,quasi-84-year scales,and a centennial oscillation with quasi-181-year and quasi-363-year scales,which had a good correspondence with the 2~8 a cycle of El Nino(ENSO),solar activity of quasi-11-year cycle and the 20~30 a cycle of Pacific Decadal Oscillation(PDO),respectively.The oscillating signals of drought disasters on the interannual scale in Weinan region during the Ming and Qing dynasties may be stronger than those on the interdecadal and centennial scales.The frequency series of drought disasters in Weinan region was generally consistent with the winter temperature change series of China,which was basically in the same direction with the temperature change in the northern hemisphere during this period,but not completely synchronized.Drought disasters had significant multi-scale features and response to climate change in Weinan region during the Ming and Qing dynasties.