中国城镇退休人员消费特征探究

An Analysis of Consumption Characteristics of Urban Retirees in China

人口老龄化进程下,中国城镇退休人员数量激增,退休消费对居民总消费的重要性凸显。文章基于CHIP数据,选用组群分析、ELES模型探究中国城镇退休人员消费水平、消费结构特征。结果表明城镇退休人员消费潜力正不断被释放;越晚年份出生的人群消费水平越高、消费观念越超前,支付能力越强;以75岁为分界点,退休人员人均消费数量随年龄变化呈“前端平稳,尾部激增”趋势。老年人“勤俭节约、量入为出”的传统观念已不适用于现今社会。就消费结构而言,城镇退休人员仍处在满足基本生存需求的初级阶段,生活必需中的食品支出、医疗支出占总支出较大比重。随着社会保障制度完善,城镇退休人员消费结构正在优化,对交通通信、居住、教育文化娱乐的消费意愿不断提升。

The number of retirees and the contribution of retire consumption to total consumption are increasing as the acceleration of population aging,meanwhile people born in the first baby boom will retire.Based on CHIP data,this paper will use the method of cohort analysis and ELES model to explore the characteristics of retirees'consumption quantity and consumption structure.The result shows that retirees in urban area have tremendous consumptive capacity.The later year of birth,the strong ability to pay,the more quantity of consumption.We treat 75 years old as turning point,the tendency of per capita consumption are changing with age:the front end is stable and the tail is surging.It is inconsistent with the traditional view that elderly people are always thrifty.The result also shows that urban retirees are still in the primary stage of meeting basic survival needs.Food expenditure and medical expenditure account for a large proportion of total expenditure.Expenditures on residence,transport and communications have crowded out expenditures on luxury goods,which will hinder the improvement of consumption structure.