考虑温度-负荷相关性的调温负荷曲线拟合方法研究

A Study on the Fitting Method of Temperature-Adjusting Load Curve Considering the Temperature-Load Correlation

根据调温负荷与温度的相关性,分别采用一元二次函数、一元三次函数进行温度-调温负荷曲线拟合,并采用二元二次函数拟合调温曲线以分析考虑温度累积效应后采暖电负荷受气温影响的情况。最后提出了温度-调温负荷灵敏度量化温度对调温负荷的影响程度。以贵州省多年历史负荷数据及气温数据为样本,计算调温负荷曲线,拟合该地区温度-调温负荷曲线,为电网规划及调度运行提供负荷特性、负荷预测计算工程实用方法。

According to the correlation between temperatureadjusting load and temperature,this paper uses the unary quadratic function and unary cubic function to fit the temperature-adjusting load curve,and the binary quadratic function is also used to fit the temperature-adjusting load curve to analyze the influence of temperature on the heating electric load after considering the temperature accumulation effect. Finally,the sensitivity of the temperature-temperature-adjusting load is proposed to quantify the influence of temperature on temperature-adjusting load. The paper takes the historical load data and temperature data of Guizhou Province as samples to calculate temperature-adjusting load curve and fit the temperature-temperature-adjusting load curve,and provides a practical engineering method of load characteristic load prediction calculation for power grid planning and dispatching operation.