河南省主要流域径流量变化及其对降水变化的响应

Runoff Variation and Its Response to Precipitation in Major River Basins of Henan Province

本文采用Mann-Kendall秩次相关检验和线性回归法,对19732016年河南省主要流域实测径流量、气温、降水演变规律进行分析,在此基础上,对不同阶段实测径流量与降水变化的响应关系进行研究。结果表明:河南省气温呈显著升高趋势,气温平均线性变化率为0.31℃/a,省内四大流域气温均呈升高态势,海河区升温幅度为0.2~0.7℃/a,黄河区上游升温幅度较大,长江区升温幅度为0.2~0.4℃/a,淮河区北部站点升温幅度较大;河南省降水呈非显著变化趋势,四大流域中,海河区、黄河区、长江区降水呈不显著减少,淮河区降水呈不显著增加趋势。受全球升温及人类活动影响,河南省主要流域6个水文站实测径流量呈不同程度减少趋势,其中,海河区安阳站、长江区唐河站实测年径流量下降趋势显著。降水径流关系分析表明,人类活动对黑石关站、安阳站、唐河站径流影响较大,随着降水量的增多,人类活动对河川径流量的影响可能更大。

In this paper,Mann-Kendall rank correlation test and linear regression method are used to analyze the evolution rules of measured runoff,air temperature and precipitation in major basins of Henan province from 1973 to 2016.On this basis,the response relationship between measured runoff and precipitation change at different stages is analyzed.The results show that the temperature in Henan province shows a significant increase trend,with the average linear variation rate being 0.31℃/a.The temperature in the four major river basins in Henan presents an increasing trend,with the temperature rise range between 0.2—0.7℃/a in Haihe Region,and between 0.2—0.4℃/a in the Yangtze River region.Besides,the upper reaches of the Yellow River region and the northern parts of Huaihe River region share a large warning range.On the other hand,the precipitation in Henan province presents a non-significant change trend.Among the four major river basins,the precipitation in Haihe Region,Yellow River region and Yangtze River region does not decrease significantly,while the precipitation in Huaihe Region presents a non-significant increase trend.Under the influence of global warming and human activities,the measured runoff at the six hydrological stations in the main river basins of Henan shows a trend of decrease to different degrees,of which the measured runoff at Anyang station in Haihe region and Tanghe Station in the Yangtze River region shows a significantly decreasing trend.In addition,the analysis of the relationship between precipitation and runoff shows that human activities have a greater impact on the runoff of Kuishi Pass station,Anyang station and Tanghe station.With the increase of precipitation,human activities may have an even greater impact on the river runoff.