盈余波动性与IPO回报:基于风险补偿视角的解释

Earnings Volatility and IPO Returns:Explanation from the Perspective of Risk Compensation

在资本市场中,IPO回报是关系到多方市场参与主体利益的重要问题之一。基于风险补偿的视角,以1991—2015年中国A股IPO公司为研究样本,检验盈余波动性对IPO回报的影响。结果发现,盈余波动性越高,投资者基于风险补偿所要求的IPO回报越高。作用机制检验结果表明,经营风险在盈余波动性对IPO回报的影响中发挥显著的中介效应,而信息风险的中介效应较弱。异质性检验结果显示,IPO制度变迁、投资者构成均会对盈余波动性与IPO回报之间的关系产生影响。此外,盈余波动性也会在较长时期影响IPO回报。研究结果表明:公司的盈余波动性增加了投资者利用盈余信息进行决策的风险,进而促使IPO回报有所提升;公司可以通过提升持续稳定的经营能力降低盈余波动性,进而在一定程度上降低投资者对IPO回报的风险补偿要求。研究结论可以为上市公司有效降低融资成本以及监管机构加强IPO异象监管提供重要的参考。

The return of IPO is one of the most important issues in capital market,which is related to the interests of multi-participants.Based on the perspective of risk compensation,this paper examines the impact of earnings volatility on the returns of IPO with samples of A-share IPO companies from 1991 to 2015.The test results show that the higher the volatility of earnings,the higher the return of IPO required by investors based on risk compensation.The results of mechanism test show that operating risk plays a significant intermediary effect in the impact of earnings volatility on the returns of IPO,while the intermediary effect of information risk is weak.Heterogeneity test results show that changes in the IPO system and composition of investors will have an impact on the relationship between earnings volatility and IPO returns.And the volatility of earnings can also affect returns of IPO over the long term.The results show that earnings volatility of IPO companies may increase the risk of investors using earnings information to make decisions,and then improve the required returns.Improving the sustainable and stable operation ability and reducing earnings volatility may reduce the demand of investors for returns to some extent.The conclusion of the study can provide ideas and empirical evidence for listed companies to reduce the cost of equity financing and for regulators to supervise IPO anomalies.