新冠肺炎预警系统的构建与效果评价

Establishment and evaluation of early warning system for COVID-19

目的:分析新冠肺炎预警系统应用于医疗机构疫情早期预警的效果。方法:通过信息系统收集某三甲综合医院2020年1月11日至2月25日所有就诊患者数据,计算预警系统的灵敏度、特异度、阳性预测值。结果:该院新冠肺炎确诊/疑似患者51例,有效预警48例,系统预警灵敏度为94.12%、特异度为97.59%、阳性预测值为1.21%。其中发热门诊确诊/疑似患者47例,有效预警45例,预警系统的灵敏度为95.74%、特异度为88.41%、阳性预测值为12.40%。结论:新冠肺炎预警系统在发热门诊的预警效果较好,应加强对发热门诊与住院病区新冠肺炎疫情的监测和排查。

Objective:To analyze the effect of COVID-19 early warning system on the early warning of epidemic situation in medical institutions,and to provide a scientific basis for improving COVID-19 surveillance and warning system.Methods:The data of all patients in a 3 A general hospital from January 11 to February 25 was collected by an information system.The sensitivity,specificity and positive predictive value of the early warning system were calculated.Results:There were 51 COVID-19 confirmed/suspected cases in this hospital,and the early warning was effective in 48 cases;the sensitivity,specificity and positive predictive value of the early warning system was 94.12%,97.59%and 1.21%,respectively.There were 47 COVID-19 confirmed/suspected cases in fever clinic,and the early warning was effective in 45 cases;the sensitivity,specificity and positive predictive value of the early warning system were 95.74%,88.41%and 12.40%,respectively.Conclusion:The effect of COVID-19 early warning system is better in fever clinic.Surveillance and investigation of COVID-19 in fever clinic and inpatient wards should be strengthened.