基于土地利用变化的长沙市生态系统服务价值计量分析及趋势预测

Metrological Analysis and Trend Prediction of Ecosystem Service Value in Changsha Based on Land Use Change

为促进区域开发利用与生态系统可持续发展;给城市建设中协调人地关系、科学利用土地资源提供参考。基于2009—2019年的土地利用数据,借鉴全球生态系统服务价值最新研究成果,结合研究区域实际情况,采用土地利用动态度、生态系统服务价值评估模型与灰色GM(1,1)预测模型等方法,对研究区域土地利用、生态系统服务价值等变化情况进行相关计量与分析,并对未来变化趋势进行了预测。结果表明:1)2009—2019年长沙市耕地、园地、林地、水域、未利用地面积逐年减少,建设用地面积增加,总面积由117.46万hm^(2)增加至118.10万hm^(2);2)2009—2019年间,长沙市生态系统服务价值由1936.556×108减少为1527.587×108元,共减少了408.97×108元,变化率为-21.12%;3)2009—2019年间,长沙市水文调节、气候调节、维持生物多样性、保持土壤与气体调节服务功能贡献量均占据各时期内所有功能的10%以上,是长沙市最主要的生态系统服务功能;4)预测到长沙市2021—2029年,建设用地面积将持续增加,其他土地类型面积持续减少,总生态系统服务价值持续下降。

To promotes regional development and utilization and sustainable ecosystem development;and provides reference for the geo-located relationship and scientific use of land resources in urban construction,the calculations and analysis of the changes in land use and the value of ecosystem services in the research area were carried out,and the future change trend were predicted.It based on the land use data from 2009-2019,the latest research results on the value of global ecosystem services,the actual situation of the region,and the methods such as land use dynamics,ecosystem service value assessment model,sensitivity coefficient and grey GM(1,1)prediction model.The results show that:1)The area of cultivated land,gardens,forest land,water and unused land decreased,and the area of construction increased year by year from 2009 to 2019,and the total area of land in Changsha increased from 1.17460 million hm^(2) to1.1810 million hm^(2);2)Between 2009 and 2019,the value of ecosystem services in Changsha decreased from 1956.556×108 to 1527.587×108 yuan,which is total decreased408.97×108 yuan,with a change rate of-21.12%;3)Between 2009 and 2019,Changsha’s contribution to hydrological regulation,climate regulation,maintenance of biodiversity,maintenance of soil and gas regulatory services accounted for more than 10%of all functions in each period,making it the main ecosystem service function in Changsha;4)It’s predicted that by 2021-2029,the area of construction land will continue to increase,the area of other land types will continue to decrease,and the value of total ecosystem services will continue to decline.