新冠疫情对国内外宏观经济影响量化分析

Quantitative Analysis of COVID-19 Impact on Domestic and Foreign Macroeconomics

新冠疫情在全球多点暴发,快速蔓延,给各国人民生命安全和身体健康带来巨大威胁,对全球人员往来和世界经济造成严重冲击。文章以可计算一般均衡(CGE)模型为基础,根据疫情走势及各国采取的政策措施,量化分析疫情期间各国采取不同政策手段对世界主要经济体和宏观经济及我国国内主要行业的影响。研究发现,疫情导致各国经济增长均下行,对欧美国家的影响明显,对中国影响相对较小,各经济体大力增加投资。对于国内不同行业将产生不同影响,受益最大的是医疗业;受负面影响最严重的是服务业、交通运输行业;石油石化及相关行业均受损。

The COVID-19 broke out in many places around the world and spread rapidly,posing a huge threat to the lives and health of people in all countries,and causing serious impact on global personnel exchanges and the world economy.Based on the Computable General Equilibrium(CGE)model,this article quantitatively analyzed the impact of different policy measures adopted by the countries on the world's major economies and macroeconomics,and major domestic industries during the pandemic period according to the trend of the pandemic.The study found that the pandemic has caused the economic growth of all countries to decline,with obvious impact on European and America,but moderate influence on China.The economies have vigorously increased investment.Different domestic industries experienced different influence,with the medical industry benefiting the most,and the service industry hit hardest.Petroleum,petrochemical and related industries suffered from the pandemic to different extents.