基于动态最优化模型预测福建省污水污泥再利用和城市可持续发展

Reuse potential of wastewater and sludge in Fujian Province based on a dynamic optimization model and sustainable urban development

目前中国从高速发展转向高质量发展阶段,城市规模迅速扩大,城市污水、污泥大量排放,污水污泥合理处置和资源化利用等问题成为了水污染治理与能源化利用的关键。本文基于投入产出方法构建区域水环境-经济-能源系统动态最优化模型,模拟分析2012—2025年福建省9市污水污泥再利用、环境保护与城市经济增长间均衡发展路径。研究发现:(1)引入先进技术的环境综合政策系统对经济增长有显著的促进作用,在COD年均减排3%,能源消耗为14500万t标准煤的约束下,通过技术引入和政策调控,到2025年,福建省新增污水处理能力3.7亿m3,新增污泥处理量37.6万t,GDP年均增速达到8.6%。随着环境约束增加、技术投入加大,经济增长具有边际递增效应;(2)环境政策手段对区域经济影响具有滞后性,地方政府应制定系统的中长期财政计划,以确保环境治理效果的稳定性和持续性;(3)引入污水污泥处理技术的政策系统为环境治理与经济增长实现"双赢"的发展模式提供了有力支持。运用创新的技术实现节能减排约束下的经济发展目标,有效地促进经济社会发展全面绿色转型。

At present, China has changed from the stage of high-speed development to high-quality development, with the rapid expansion of city size, large amount of urban sewage and sludge discharge, rational disposal and resource utilization of sewage and sludge have become the key issues of water pollution control and energy utilization. In this paper, a dynamic optimization model of regional water environment-economy-energy system was established based on the inputoutput method to simulate and analyze the balanced development path among sewage and sludge reuse, environmental protection and urban economic growth in nine cities of Fujian Province from2012 to 2025. The results show that:(1) The comprehensive environmental policy system with the introduction of advanced technology has a significant promoting effect on economic growth. Under the constraints of an average annual COD reduction of 3% and an energy consumption of 145 million tons of standard coal, through technology introduction and policy regulation,by 2025,Fujian Province will achieve an additional sewage treatment capacity of 370 million m3, and additional sludge utilization capacity of 376 thousand tons, with an average annual GDP growth rate of 8.6%. With the increase of environmental constraints and technological input, the economic has a marginal increasing effect;(2) The impact of environmental policy on regional economy has obvious lag. Local governments need to systematically formulate medium and long-term financial plans to ensure the stability and sustainability of environmental governance effects.(3) The policy system including introduction of sewage and sludge treatment technology provides strong support for the"win-win"development model of environmental governance and economic growth. And innovative technologies can be used to achieve the economic development goals under the constraints of energy conservation and emission reduction, effectively to promote the comprehensive green transformation of economic and social development.