经济增长与通货膨胀的趋势和周期——基于内生结构变化的共同趋势和相依周期的研究

The common trend and codependent cycle of economic growth and inflation in China

本文分解了经济增长与通货膨胀的共同趋势和相依周期,以此揭示经济增长与通货膨胀的均衡匹配区间,并研究实际因素与名义因素对共同趋势和相依周期的影响.结果表明:经济增长与通货膨胀形成了共同趋势和相依周期,共同趋势和相依周期随着经济结构的转型而变化.经济结构转型后,经济增长和通货膨胀的共同趋势和相依周期形成新的"共同"运行态势,其中趋势经济增长率下降速度减缓但不稳定.对于新常态下6.5%以上的经济增长目标,通货膨胀目标应略低于2.0%.名义因素和实际因素都对经济增长和通货膨胀的区间调控有显著影响,但消费、投资、财政支出、货币政策和对外开放是新常态下将经济增长和通货膨胀保持在合理区间的最主要影响因素.

This paper decomposes the common trend and codependent cycle of the economic growth and inflation,to reveal the equilibrium matching range of the economic growth and inflation,and studies the impact of real and nominal factors on common trend and codependent cycle of economic and inflation.This paper illustrates following facts.First,the economic growth and inflation formed common trend and codependent cycle.Moreover,these common trend and codependent cycle changed with the transformation of economic structure.After economic transformation,the economic growth and inflation formed a new"common"running situation,in which the trend economic growth rate decreases slowly but unstably.For the economic growth goal that beyond 6.5%under new norm,the target of inflation should be slightly lower than 2%.Furthermore,both real and nominal factors have a significant impact on the interval control of the economic growth and inflation.However,investment,consumption,financial expenditure,monetary policy and opening to the outside world are the main factors to keep the economic growth and inflation in a reasonable range.