智能化发展能促进中国全球价值链攀升吗?

Does intelligent development promote China’s upgrading in global value chain?

本文通过将智能化与全球价值链分工纳入同一分析框架,从理论与实证两方面验证了智能化发展对全球价值链攀升的影响及其机制。研究表明:智能化水平对地区全球价值链地位存在显著正向影响,在考虑内生性问题后,正向影响依然稳健;智能化对全球价值链攀升的影响存在行业、区域与政策的异质性。智能化水平对技术密集型行业全球价值链地位攀升的促进作用最大,资本密集型行业次之,对劳动密集型行业影响最小。并且,智能化对要素禀赋和政策缺乏优势地区价值链攀升的效果更为明显;智能化通过提升出口增加值率与技术复杂度两个渠道实现全球价值链攀升。但技术差距的存在,智能化的出口增加值效应未能在技术密集型行业中体现。因此,突破全球价值链的"低端锁定",必须推进互联网、大数据、人工智能等同实体经济深度融合,突破核心技术,实现全球价值链的中高端迈进。

This paper constructs an analytical framework that includes intelligent technology and GVC, verifying the impact of intelligent development on the upgrading of global value chains and its mechanism from both theoretical and empirical aspects. The research shows that the level of intelligence has a significant positive impact on the division status of the regional GVC. After considering the endogeneity and heterogeneity issues, the positive impact is robust;Also, the effect of intelligence on GVC rising is more pronounced in areas where factor endowments and policies are lacking advantages;Intelligence increases GVC by increasing the two channels of value added rate and technological sophistication. However, the existence of technology gaps, intelligent export value-added effect fails to be reflected in technology-intensive industries. Therefore, China’s breakthrough in the "low-end lock" of the global value chain must promote the deep integration of the Internet, big data, artificial intelligence, and the economy, and achieve the mid-to-high-end of GVC.