旅游发展、空间溢出与区域经济不平衡

Tourism Development,Spatial Spillover and Regional Development Imbalance

区域经济不平衡关乎国计民生和社会稳定。旅游与区域经济之间关系日益密切,但现有关于旅游发展对区域经济不平衡的影响研究尚未达成一致结论,且较少关注旅游空间溢出效应。文章基于旅游发展对区域经济不平衡影响的理论分析框架,运用1998—2017年中国31个省(区市)的数据,测算各省(区市)的经济发展不平衡程度,结果表明中国西部和东部省(区市)的经济发展不平衡矛盾较中部省(区市)更为突出。此外,文章还运用空间杜宾模型分析了旅游发展对区域经济不平衡的直接影响和空间溢出效应,研究发现影响系数均显著为负,表明旅游发展能够直接和间接地减缓区域经济不平衡。而且,通过进一步分区域研究发现,相比于中西部地区,该直接和间接缓解作用在东部地区表现更为显著。

Regional development imbalance matters in national economy,people’s livelihood and social stability.Tourism and regional economy are getting increasingly intertied,however existing researches on the effect of tourism development on regional development imbalance haven’t reached a universal law,and hardly take the spatial spillover effect of tourism into account.Based on the theoretical model of tourism development on regional development imbalance,this paper used the data of 31 provinces in China from 1998 to 2017 to estimate the degree of unbalanced development,and found that the imbalance contradictions in eastern and western regions are more prominent than those in central regions.With an analysis of the direct effect and spatial spillover effect of tourism development on regional development imbalance based on spatial Durbin model to,it also found that the influence coefficients were both significantly negative,which indicates that tourism development has significant negative direct effect and indirect effect on regional development imbalance,and this effect is more significant in the eastern region than in the central and western regions of China.The authors believe that these findings would enrich the existing studies of the tourism impact on regional imbalance,and provide the references for relieving the unbalanced development of countries.