中国与“一带一路”沿线国家之间农产品贸易的边境效应——基于GSIM模型的分析

Border effect of agricultural trade between China and the countries along the Belt and Road:An analysis based on the GSIM model

为研究"一带一路"倡议对中国农产品贸易的影响,通过构建农产品贸易可计算局部均衡模型GSIM,利用2005—2018年相关贸易和经济数据,计算出中国与"一带一路"沿线国家之间农产品贸易的相关参数及其校准值,测度双边农产品贸易的边境效应及其变化趋势,并设计不同的模拟情境分析了"一带一路"倡议的实施对中国农产品贸易的影响。结果表明:相较于2013年之前,"一带一路"倡议的提出和相关政策实施使中国与"一带一路"沿线国家双边农产品贸易的边境效应下降了48.5%,"一带一路"倡议显著降低了双边贸易壁垒,有效促进了中国与"一带一路"沿线国家的农产品双边贸易增长。国内不同地区之间、单边与双边效应之间变化均呈现一定差异,中西部地区边境效应的减少多于其他地区,进口边境效应的减少多于出口。未来随着"一带一路"倡议框架的完善和政策实施,贸易成本和本土偏好下降及农业技术进步将进一步降低边境效应,地区间贸易水平差距将逐渐缩小,农产品双边贸易活动趋于活跃,贸易总额持续增长。

In order to investigate the effect of the Belt and Road Initiative(BRI)on China’s agricultural trade,a computable partial equilibrium GSIM model of agricultural trade was constructed.Based on the relevant trade and economic data between 2005 and 2018,the relevant parameters and calibration values were calculated and the border effect of bilateral agricultural products trade between China and the Belt and Road countries was measured.Simulation analysis was also conducted under different scenarios to analyze the impact of the BRI on China’s agricultural trade.The results showed that:Compared to the data before 2013,the border effect of agricultural products trade between China and the Belt and Road countries fell by 48.5%,which meant the BRI significantly reduced the trade barriers,and effectively promoted the bilateral agricultural trade.There were certain differences among different domestic regions,and between unilateral and bilateral effects.The reduction of border effect in the central and western areas was more than that in other areas,and the reduction of import border effect was more than that of export.With the implementation and improvement of the BRI in the future,the decline of trade cost and local preferences and the agricultural technology progress will further reduce the border effect.The gap between regional trade levels will be gradually reduced,the agricultural trade activities will become more active,and there will be a continuous growth of agricultural trade between China and the Belt and Road countries.