中国边界县区人口老龄化的时空格局及其影响因素研究

Spatio-temporal pattern and influencing mechanism analysis of population ageing in China’s border counties

受功能文化区理论和距离衰减定律的影响,中国边界县区凸显出明显的特性,这种"边界效应"深刻影响到老龄化进程。利用2000、2010年分县人口普查数据,统计分析边界县区人口老龄化时空格局,通过空间分析方法和路径分析模型,剖析中国边界县区老龄化进程的影响机理。研究表明:(1)2000—2010年中国边界县区老龄化率虽低于全国平均水平但增速明显,且集中分布的趋势在相对减弱,空间差异增大,总体上呈现出东南-西北方向较为明显的分异,(2)热点县区集聚带基本分布于中国东南部,冷点县区集聚带基本分布于中国西北部,且热点县区显示出由东向西扩展、由北向南转移的趋势,(3)中国边界县区老龄化的直接影响因子为预期寿命、生育率和迁移率。其中预期寿命和生育率对边界县区老龄化有正向效应,迁移率则对边界县区老龄化产生负向效应,且预期寿命影响强度最大,迁移率次之,生育率影响强度最弱,(4)经济因素、社会因素、家庭因素和自然因素作为外生变量,分别对边界县区老龄化率产生直接和间接的影响。其中正向因子按总效应值依次为人均教育水平、家庭结构、居住条件、人居环境指数、人均GDP和城镇化率,对老龄化率产生促进作用。

China’s border counties have affected by the theory of functional culture regions and distance decay laws, meanwhile the "border effects" has been presented vividly and affects the process of its population ageing deeply. Moreover, extensive attention has been paid to regional trade and regional disparity of borders, however, the importance of borders’ population ageing should never be overlooked. To fill this gap, based on the spatial units of county-level region and using data from the population censuses of 2000 and 2010, with the help of spatial analysis method and path analysis model, the Spatial-temporal pattern and changing process of population ageing in China’s border counties was statistically analyzed. Because the spatial complexity of border counties, the approach of path analysis model was introduced to explore the path relationship between various variables and the influencing mechanism of ageing process. The primary results are found as follows:(1)The population aging in China’s border counties is lower but increased significantly compared with national average lever from 2000 to 2010, meanwhile the spatial agglomeration is decreased and spatial difference is increased. In general, southeastnorthwest spatial differentiation of population ageing in China’s border counties is presented vividly and obviously.(2)The agglomeration belt of hotspot is located in the southeast of China while cold spot is located in the northwest of China basically, and the trend of hotspot countries is showed that it has extended from east to west and transferred from north to south.(3) Life expectancy, migration and fertility are the direct influencing factors of population ageing in China’s border counties, and the influencing effects decreased systematically. What’s more, life expectancy and fertility have significant positive-effects on population aging in China’s border counties while migration has significant negative-effects.(4) Economic, social, family and natural factors as external variables have significant direct-effects and indirect-effects on population aging in China’s border counties. And according to total effect value, the positive factors are per capita education level, family structure, living conditions, human settlements environment index,per capita GDP and urbanization rate, which promote population aging.