“一带一路”倡议下中国与中亚五国基础设施的贸易效应研究

The Trade Effects of Infrastructure between China and the Five Central Asian Countries Under the Belt and Road Initiative

基础设施建设是经济高质量发展的“增速器”,在国际贸易中的作用日益凸显。文章在引力模型的基础上,构建跨国面板数据模型,实证分析不同种类基础设施及其交互作用对中国与中亚五国进口贸易效应、出口贸易效应以及双边贸易效应的影响。研究结果表明:完善的基础设施可以使得一国对外贸易获得有效发展,能源基础设施、交通基础设施和通信网络基础设施的进口贸易效应、出口贸易效应及双边贸易效应大小不一、作用不同,不同类型基础设施交互作用的贸易效应具有不确定性。同时文章提出了一系列政策建议,如要契合地理特征、发挥好基础设施的边际溢出效应,整合要素资源、提高跨境产能合作能力,借力经贸合作、发挥资金在“新基建”中的杠杆作用等。

Infrastructure construction is a“speed increaser”for high-quality economic development,and its role in international trade has become increasingly prominent.Based on the gravity model,this paper constructs a transnational panel data model to empirically analyze the impact of different infrastructures and their interaction on the import trade,export trade and bilateral trade between China and the five Central Asian countries.The research results show that firstly,a sound infrastructure can enable a country’s foreign trade to develop effectively;Secondly,the import trade effect,export trade effect,and bilateral trade effect of energy infrastructure,transportation infrastructure,and communication network infrastructure vary in size and role;Thirdly,the trade effect of the interaction between different infrastructures is uncertain.This paper policy suggests for achieving the interconnection of infrastructures;reducing the risk of contract heterogeneity by fitting in with geographical features and making dynamic changes;to improving the capacity for cross-border cooperation by integrating factor resources and enhancing the level of allocation and integration;building a top level design for developing of“new infrastructure”through trade and economic cooperation and capital leverage;etc.