中国——东盟自贸区贸易效应分析

Analysis on Trade Effect of China-ASEAN Free Trade Area

中国—东盟自由贸易区自建立10年来有效提高了双方的贸易自由化和便利化水平,扩大了双边贸易规模,推动对外经济持续高速发展。本文通过分析中国—东盟贸易规模和贸易结构,并采用2002—2019年中国与东盟的贸易数据,选取双方贸易的影响因子,运用扩展引力模型分析中国—东盟自贸区贸易效应。研究结果表明,中国—东盟自贸区的建立促进了我国对东盟的进出口贸易,且对出口的促进效应更强。最后根据分析提出深入关税合作,促进双方贸易潜力提升;积极调整贸易结构;加强道路交通设施建设,促进内部互联互通;借助"一带一路"建设,深化经贸往来的建议,以巩固双方经贸关系。

The China-ASEAN Free Trade Area has effectively raised the level of trade liberalization and facilitation,expanded the scale of bilateral trade and promoted the sustained and high-speed development of the foreign economy in the past 10 years.This paper analyzes the trade scale and trade structure of China-ASEAN,and adopts the trade data of China and ASEAN from2002 to 2019,selects the influence factors of trade between the two sides,and analyzes the trade effect of China-ASEAN Free Trade Zone by using the extended gravity model.The results show that the establishment of China-ASEAN Free Trade Zone promotes China’s import and export trade to ASEAN,and has a stronger effect on export promotion.Finally,according to the analysis,the paper puts forward suggestions for in-depth tariff cooperation in order to promote trade potential between the two sides;actively adjust the trade structure;strengthen the construction of road traffic facilities to promote internal connectivity;and deepen economic and trade exchanges with the help of"Belt and Road"construction in order to consolidate economic and trade relations between the two sides.