工业机器人对就业的影响机制--产业结构高级化还是合理化?

Impact Mechanism of Industrial Robot on Employment--Upgrading or Rationalization of Industrial Structure

基于2007~2017年中国30个省市自治区(1)研究样本面板数据,运用中介效应模型检验产业结构在工业机器人与就业之间的传导机制。研究表明:工业机器人对就业具有显著的正向影响,产业结构高级化在工业机器人与工业就业和工业非技能就业之间发挥完全中介效应,在工业机器人与工业技能就业之间发挥部分中介效应,产业结构合理化在工业机器人与就业之间不存在中介效应。工业机器人分别显著增加东中部和东北地区工业就业,东北地区工业技能就业以及东部和东北地区工业非技能就业,2013年后工业机器人不改变工业就业总量,但对工业技能就业、工业非技能就业的正向影响分别增强和减弱。

Based on the panel data of 30 provinces in China from 2007 to 2017,this paper uses mediation effect model to test the transmission mechanism of industrial structure between industrial robot and employment.The results show that the industrial robot has a significant positive impact on the employment.The upgrading of industrial structure shows a complete mediation effect between industrial robot and industrial employment and industrial unskilled employment and presents a partial mediation effect between industrial robot and industrial skilled employment.The rationalization of industrial structure shows no mediation effect between industrial robot and employment.Besides,the industrial robot has significantly increased the industrial employment in the eastern,central and northeast regions,the industrial skilled employment in the northeast and the industrial unskilled employment in the eastern and northeastern regions respectively.After 2013,industrial robot has not changed the total amount of industrial employment,but it has a strengthened and weakened positive influence on industrial skilled employment and industrial unskilled employment respectively.