1961—2019年山东省气候生产潜力时空变化特征

Spatial and Temporal Variation Characteristics of Climate Production Potential in Shandong Province from 1961 to 2019

基于1961—2019年山东省21个气象观测站的年平均温度和年降水量资料,利用Miami模型和Thornthwaite纪念模型,计算温度、降水和气候生产潜力,并运用气候倾向率、GIS空间插值和R/S等方法分析其变化趋势。结果表明:温度生产潜力以25.1 g/(m^(2)·10a)的速率递增,降水生产潜力呈递减趋势,递减速率17.71 g/(m^(2)·10a),气候生产潜力呈递增趋势,递增速率0.742 g/(m^(2)·10a),多年平均值1 106.0 g/m^(2);在空间分布上,温度生产潜力和降水生产潜力的分布与年平均温度和年平均降水量的分布基本一致,气候生产潜力由东南向西北递减;温度和降水对气候生产潜力均有正影响,其中降水是主要限制因子。R/S结果表明,未来温度生产潜力有较强的持续上升趋势,降水生产潜力持续减少,气候生产潜力会有持续增大的趋势。

Based on annual average temperature and annual precipitation data of 21 meteorological observation stations in Shandong Province from 1961 to 2019,Miami model and the Thornthwaite commemorative model were used to calculate temperature,precipitation and climate production potential.Climatic tendency rate,GIS spatial interpolation and R/S methods were used to analyze change trend.Results showed that temperature production potential increased at a rate of 25.1 g/(m^(2)·10 a).Precipitation production potential showed a decreasing trend,and deceleration rate was 17.71 g/(m^(2)·10 a).Climatic production potential showed an increasing trend with increasing rate of 0.742 g/(m^(2)·10 a),and multi-year average was 1106.0 g/m^(2).In terms of spatial distribution,distribution of temperature production potential and precipitation production potential was basically consistent with distribution of annual average temperature and annual precipitation,while climate production potential decreased from southeast to northwest.Both temperature and precipitation had a positive effect on climate productivity,with precipitation being the main limiting factor.The R/S results showed that temperature production potential had a strong continuous upward trend,precipitation production potential would continue to decrease,and climate production potential would continue to increase in the future.