雾霾的区域性特征及空间关联关系研究--以辽中南城市群为例

Study on the Regional Characteristics and Spatial Relationship of Haze:The Case of Central and Southern Liaoning Urban Agglomeration

辽中南地区是国务院《大气污染防治计划》中要求的重点区域,以2016年辽中南城市群PM2.5日均浓度为雾霾污染测量指标,运用AR模型分析了雾霾的持续性特征,基于格兰杰因果检验和ISM模型讨论了城市间雾霾污染的相互影响。实证结果表明:辽中南城市间雾霾污染存在较强持续性和空间溢出效应,溢出方向为从北向南,以沈阳等城市为中心向周边溢出;城市群内一个城市雾霾浓度的提高,会对周边城市产生冲击。辽中南地区的联防联控应考虑城市之间雾霾污染的相互影响,合理设置雾霾污染防治重点区域,调整产业布局等手段,可以产生更有效的治理效果。

The central and southern region of Liaoning Province is the key area required in the State Council's Air Pollution Prevention and Control Plan.In this paper,the daily average PM2.5 index of central and southern Liaoning urban agglomeration in 2016 is used as the measurement index of haze pollution,and AR model is used to study the persistence characteristics of haze pollution in cities in central and southern Liaoning.Based on Granger causality test and ISM model,the mutual influence of haze pollution between cities is discussed.The empirical results show that the haze pollution between cities in central and southern Liaoning has a strong persistence and spatial spillover effect,and the spillage direction is from north to south,with Shenyang and other cities as the center.The increase in the haze concentration of a city in the urban agglomeration will have an impact on the surrounding cities.The joint prevention and control of central and southern Liaoning should consider the mutual influence of haze pollution between cities.By rationally setting up key areas of smog pollution and adjusting industrial layout,it can produce more effective governance results.