基于灰色线性回归组合模型的中国高职教育规模影响因素及预测研究

Research on the Influencing Factors and Prediction of the Scale of Higher Vocational Education in China Based on the Combination Model of Gray Linear Regression

进入新时代,中国高职教育规模发展直接影响到中国高等教育的中长期规划。影响中国高职教育规模发展因素包括教育投入、社会经济发展水平、社会总状况和生源来源状况等。构建灰色线性回归组合模型改善了原有灰色模型中没有考虑线性因素和线性回归模型中没有考虑指数增长趋势的缺陷。灰色线性回归组合模型对中国未来高职教育规模预测结果显示,在保持现状的基础上,在未来的一定时期内,中国高职教育发展将继续保持稳速增长趋势。

In the new era,the scale development of China’s higher vocational education has a direct impact on the medium and long-term planning of China’s higher education.The factors influencing the scale development of Higher Vocational Education in China include educational investment,social and economic development level,general social situation and the source of students.The combination model of gray linear regression improves the defect that the original gray model does not consider the linear factor and the linear regression model does not consider the exponential growth trend.According to the prediction results of the scale of China’s future higher vocational education based on the grep linear regression combination model,the development of China’s higher vocational education will continue to maintain a steady growth trend in the future.