专家建模器构建时间序列模型在需求预测中的应用

The Application of Expert Modeler to Building Time Series Model in Demand Forecasting

在供应链协同环境中,市场需求预测是供应链上下游企业非常重视的工作之一,它是供应链运作相关活动的基础工作。文章在充分调研企业需求预测现状后,发现很多中小企业缺乏有效的、定量的需求预测模型。文章通过对比常规需求预测方法,认为基于SPSS统计分析软件专家建模器构建时间序列预测模型的方法,能够智能、便捷输出适宜、实用的时间序列预测模型,且能够很好说明预测精度,供企业参考使用,具有较强的实用价值。

In the collaborative environment of supply chain,market demand forecasting is one of the most important tasks for the enterprises in the supply chain,and it is the basic work of supply chain operation related activities.In this paper,after fully investigating the status quo of enterprise demand forecasting,it is found that many small and medium-sized enterprises lack effective and quantitative demand forecasting models.By comparing with the conventional demand forecasting methods,this paper proposes that the method of building time series forecasting model based on SPSS statistical analysis software expert modeler can intelligently and conveniently produce suitable and practical time series forecasting model,and can well explain the forecasting accuracy,which has strong practical value for enterprises.