美国三轮超低利率政策五种传导机制有效性研究

Research on the Effectiveness of FiveTransmission Channels duringThree Rounds of Ultra-low Interest Rate Policy in the United States

超低利率通过信贷途径、资产价格途径、风险偏好途径、汇率途径和通胀预期途径传导至实体经济,从而达到扩大内需、缓解经济危机的政策目标。本文通过对货币市场、金融市场和实体部门多项重要指标的分析,全面检验了美联储自2002年11月至2004年9月、2008年10月至2018年3月,以及2020年3月以来三轮超低利率政策的五种传导机制有效性,发现不同传导机制的有效性因历次危机产生的原因、超低利率政策力度及持续时间、国际环境等不同而有显著的差异。信贷途径、资产价格途径和汇率途径表现出较强的传导性,风险偏好途径是否有效取决于预期资本回报率,通胀预期途径则在三轮政策周期中都无效。

Ultra-low interest rates are transmitted to the real economy through credit channels,asset price channels,risk appetite channels,exchange rate channels,and inflation expectations channels,so as to achieve the policy goals of expanding domestic demand and alleviating the economic crisis.Through analyzing a number of im⁃portant indicators of the currency market,financial market,and physical sector,this article comprehensively testes the effectiveness of the five transmission mechanisms of the Fed's three rounds of ultra-low interest rate policies from November 2002 to September 2004,October 2008 to March 2018,and March 2020 to now,and it is found that the effectiveness of different transmission mechanisms is significantly different due to the causes of the previ⁃ous crises,the intensity and duration of the ultra-low interest rate policy,and the international environment.Cred⁃it channel,asset price channel and exchange rate channel show strong conductivity,the effectiveness of risk-tak⁃ing channel depends on the expected capital return rate,and reflation channel is ineffective during all the three rounds of ultra-low interest rate policy.