2020年1月新疆伽师序列地震OLR变化跟踪

Prediction and Tracking of OLR Change in the Sequence Earthquakes in Xinjiang,Jiashi in January 2020

基于对2020年1月新疆伽师地区3次地震的年、月预测结果,计算震中在2019年12月13日~2020年2月3日时间范围内的潮汐变化,并以引潮力周期为时间背景指示,利用NOAA提供的中国大陆范围夜间射出长波辐射(OLR)遥感辐射数据资料,分析17°N~55°N、72°E~135°E的空间范围内长波辐射连续日增量分布变化。结果显示:在潮汐连续4个低谷—高峰—低谷的周期变化中,地震发生在潮汐的高峰时段,并且其所在潮汐周期也是整个中国大陆地区唯一的长波辐射增强区域。辐射增强与潮汐同步,辐射时空演化经历微增强—增强—微衰减—增强—平静的过程,与岩石受力应变-破裂所经历的微破裂—破裂—闭锁—加速破裂—破裂的过程中,各阶段向外红外辐射演化特征吻合。表明引潮力在本次地震中改变了构造内部地应力累积—失衡过程,具有触诱发地震的作用,而OLR变化反映了本次地震地应力的变化过程,也说明在地震预测实践中,多时间尺度综合分析遥感辐射和引潮力变化,将有助于地震预测能力的提高。

Based on the annual and monthly prediction results of three earthquakes in Jiashi area of Xinjiang in January 2020,the tide force change of epicenter in the time range from December 13,2019 to February 3,2019 is calculated,and according to the period of the tide force as the time background indication,the daily increment distribution of ground long wave radiation(OLR)changes is analyzed by using the remote sensing radiation data of China provided by NOAA in the space of 17°N~55°N,72°E~135°E.In the four consecutive cycles of the tide force,the earthquakes occurred in the peak period of the tide,which was the only OLR enhancement region in the whole mainland of China.The radiation enhancement is synchronous with the tide,and the evolution of radiation in time and space goes through the process of micro enhancement—enhancement—micro attenuation—enhancement—calmness,which was consistent with the evolution characteristics of outward infrared radiation in the process of micro rupture—rupture—locking—Accelerated rupture—rupture experienced by rock stress strain—rupture.This shows that the tidal force changes the process of stress accumulation and imbalance in the structure during this earthquake,which has the effect of touch induced earthquake,and the change of OLR reflects the change process of the seismic stress.It also shows that in the practice of earthquake prediction,the comprehensive analysis of remote sensing radiation and tidal force change in multiple time scales will help to improve the earthquake prediction ability.