高质量发展、双循环新格局木质林产品贸易研究探索

Exploration of Wood Forest Product Trade Research under the High-quality Development and the New Pattern of Dual Circulation

高质量发展、构建双循环新格局是中国“十四五”时期经济发展指导方针。中国木质林产品已形成“两头在外、大进大出”长期过度依赖国际市场的基本格局,必须转型升级走高质量发展之路、致力构建双循环新格局。因此,基于达成目标的路径分析结果,探讨步入新发展阶段中国木质林产品贸易领域的重点研究方向:中国木质林产品对外依存度测评与木材安全、贸易安全分析,国际木质林产品市场和贸易研究及其对中国的影响分析,中国木材进口需求、可替代性、进口来源安全性分析,中国木质林产品国际竞争力及来源分析和全球价值链研究,中国木质林产品国内国际双循环相互促进的研究,中国木质林产品国内市场需求分析。

⑴Background——High-quality development and the establishment of a new dual-circulation pattern are important guidelines for China's economic development at present and for a long period of time in the future.In the reconstructing-era of globalization,to adapt to the new requirements of the new era,China's wood forest products must be transformed and upgraded to take the road of high-quality development,and construct a new development paradigm with domestic circulation being the mainstay and the dual circulation reinforcing each other.⑵Methods——According to the“2018 China Forestry and Grassland Development Report”and“Forest Products Yearbook 2018”,the development status of China's wood forest product trade was analyzed.From the two levels of wood supply and product demand,based on the perspective of developing and utilizing the domestic market and reducing external dependence,the basic path for the high-quality development of China's wood forest products to build a new dual-circulation development pattern is analyzed.By consulting a large number of relevant literatures,the current research progress is reviewed,existing problems are raised,and future research directions are pointed out.⑶Results——Academic research on the high-quality development of China's wood forest products and the construction of a new dual-circulation development pattern is currently relatively scarce.It is basically at the stage of introducing concepts,changing ideas,and expressing opinions.Under the background of the national development strategy requirements of high-quality development in the new era and the construction of a new dual-circulation pattern,centering on the high-quality development of China's wood forest products to build a new dual-circulation development pattern,it is proposed that the forest product trade field should be studied in several areas:evaluation of the degree of foreign dependence of China wood forest products and analysis of wood safety and trade safety,analysis of the international wood forest product market and trade and its impact on China,analysis of the substitutability of China's wood imports and safety of import sources,analysis of international competitiveness of China's wood forest products and its source and global value chain research,research on the mutual promotion of domestic and international dual circulation of China's wood forest products,and analysis of domestic market demand for China's wood forest products.At present,the most lack of research is the research on the price of international wood forest products and their impact,the comparative analysis of domestic and foreign factors of the sources of international competitiveness of China's wood forest products,the research on the local market effects of China's wood forest products and on the impact of the domestic market on import trade,analysis of domestic market demand for China's wood forest products,and the research needs to be refined to the product level and country level.Research methods should make full use of mature international models,explore the use of new models or new applications of old models,and the selection of variables and indicators in the model should be more scientific and reliable.The research scope cannot be limited to the traditional trade research field,and needs to be extended from the international trade link forward and backward.⑷Conclusions and Discussions——The domestic research on forest product trade is unprecedentedly prosperous,and a solid research foundation has been accumulated,which has created a strong research team.Based on the national development requirements of high-quality development in the new era and the construction of a new dual-circulation pattern,it is expected that relevant research can be carried out by more scholars.