分析师关注度、会计稳健性与股价崩盘风险研究

Analyst Attention,Accounting Conservatism and Stock Price Collapse Risk

本文以2012-2018年A股上市公司为样本,检验分析师关注度对股价崩盘风险的影响。研究发现,分析师关注度与股价崩盘风险有显著的负相关关系。具体而言,分析师关注度越高,即上市公司披露的分析师数量越多,股价崩盘风险越低,此结论在更换核心解释变量的度量方式后依然稳健。进一步地,本文考察会计稳健性的中介效应,提出有效监督假设和市场压力假设,通过中介效应检验验证了有效监督假设,即分析师关注度越高的企业,会计稳健性越强,从而进一步降低股价崩盘风险。本文研究结论对构建健康、平稳的资本市场提供了参考建议,有一定的借鉴意义。

The stock price crash affected the sound operation of the capital market,reduced market efficiency and hindered its normal development.This article uses 2012-2018 A-share listed companies as a sample to examine the relationship between analysts concerns and the risk of stock price collapse.The study finds that analyst attention has a significant negative correlation with the risk of stock price collapse.Specifically,the higher the degree of analyst attention,that is,the greater the number of analysts disclosed by the listed company,the lower the risk of stock price collapse.This conclusion remains robust after changing the measurement of core explanatory variables.Furthermore,this article examines the mediating effect of accounting conservatism,proposes effective supervision hypothesis and market pressure hypothesis,and verifies the external supervision hypothesis through the mediation effect test,that is,the company that analysts pay more attention to,the stronger the accounting conservatism,which further reduces the risk of stock price collapse.The research conclusions of this article provide suggestions for building a healthy and stable capital market,and have certain reference significance.