河北省县域乡村韧性测度及时空演变

Measurement and Spatio-temporal Evolution of Rural Resilience at County Level in Hebei Province

目前中国城乡变化剧烈,乡村地区面临的风险加剧,如何有效提升乡村韧性,成为亟须探索的重要议题。通过构建乡村韧性分析框架,对1996-2016年河北省县域乡村韧性的时空分异格局及演变过程进行测度与分析,研究结果表明:1)县域乡村综合韧性经历了从小幅提升到明显增强的演化过程,且县域间乡村综合韧性差距呈现先上升再下降的趋势;在生态环境和经济发展水平两个主导因素影响下,县域乡村综合韧性总体呈现以“阜平县—平泉市”一线为界,东南高、西北低的分布格局。2)县域乡村综合韧性存在空间正相关性,空间集聚程度呈现先弱后强的变化态势;县域乡村综合韧性正向集聚程度呈现先强后弱的趋势,邻域单元韧性的差距则有所扩大。该研究可在一定程度上丰富乡村韧性与乡村可持续发展理论以及乡村韧性的测度方法,弥补现有研究尺度的不足,并为明确乡村的发展优势和薄弱环节、提升乡村地域系统的韧性潜力、推动乡村治理路径的创新提供参考。

Recently,China is experiencing drastic changes in urban and rural areas,and the risks faced by rural areas are intensifying.Therefore,how to improve rural resilience has become the important issues to research urgently.Based on constructing analysis framework of rural resilience,this paper measured and depicted the spatial-temporal differentiation pattern and evolution process of rural resilience at county level in Hebei Province from 1996 to 2016.It is found as follows.1)At the county level,the comprehensive rural resilience in Hebei Province has experienced a process from a small increase to a significant enhancement,and the gap of comprehensive rural resilience between counties shows a trend of first rising and then descending.Under the influence of ecological environment and economic development level,the spatial pattern of comprehensive rural resilience generally shows high in the southeast and low in the northwest of the"Fuping County-Pingquan City"dividing line.2)The comprehensive rural resilience in Hebei Province presents a positive and enhancing spatial autocorrelation characteristics and trend.The positive agglomeration effect is first increased and then decreased.The gap of comprehensive rural resilience in neighboring counties has widened.This paper makes a preliminary exploration of rural resilience at county level,which can enrich the theory of rural resilience and sustainable rural development as well as the methods for measuring rural resilience,fill in the gaps in existing research scales,provide a reference for identifying the strengths and weaknesses of rural development,enhancing the resilience potential of rural regional system,and promoting innovation in rural governance.