基于北极航道开通情景的世界贸易网络演进分析

Analysis of World Trade Network Evolution Based on the Scenarios of Opening of Arctic Sea Route

随着北极冰层逐年消融,穿越北极的航行逐渐成为可能。由于北极航道能够大大缩短亚欧、美欧之间的航行距离,北极航道的通航可能会对世界贸易网络格局造成冲击。基于此,该文应用社会网络分析方法分析世界贸易网络的历史发展特征,并结合相关情景设计分阶段预测北极航道开通对世界贸易网络格局的冲击特征。结果显示,世界贸易网络整体呈发展态势,但各节点发展不均衡,各个地缘政治区域以及北极航道利益相关国家(地区)的贸易地位都有不同变化;北极航道的开通对于沿线及其延长线上相关国家权益的发展有利,但对沙特、埃及、新加坡等传统航道重要节点的中心地位、中介能力和核心程度会起到稀释作用,使世界贸易减少对传统航道的依赖。基于研究结果,认为推进北极航道开通对于减少中国对传统航道的依赖、分散航运风险以及“冰上丝绸之路”建设均有积极的战略意义。

Since the Arctic Sea Route will greatly shorten the sailing time and distance between Asia and Europe,the United States and Europe,it is worth investigating whether and in what way the Arctic Sea Route will have an impact on the structure of world trade network.This paper used international trade data from 2000 to 2017 via the UN Comtrade database to form the historical world trade network,then predicted the evolution of world trade network under the different scenarios of opening of the Arctic Sea Route based on its trade-boosting effect and trade-substitution effect.The paper then analyzed the network features of both historical and predicted world trade networks with the method of social network analysis.The analysis results of historical world trade network showed that:1)There was a growing trend in the network density while the growth of the trade status of different countries(regions)varied.2)Most countries(regions)along the traditional shipping routes showed signs of decline in degree centrality during the period of 2000 to 2017,while many of these countries(regions)had their growth in betweenness centrality,meaning their intermediary ability was still rising.3)China had its rapid growth in degree centrality,betweenness centrality and coreness.The scenarios of the future world trade network revealed that:1)The opening of the Arctic Sea Route will yield interests to the countries(regions)those are along the route or its extension lines,making the world trade less dependent on the traditional shipping routes.2)However,the centrality,intermediary ability,and the coreness of the countries those are on the key knots of the traditional shipping lines,including Saudi Arabia,Egypt,and Singapore,will decline.Thus,working on the utilization of the Arctic Sea Route is of vital strategic importance for China to rely less on the traditional shipping routes,diversify its shipping risks and construct the"Polar Silk Road".