少子老龄化背景下我国东北地区劳动力供给问题研究

Research on Labor Supply in Northeast China under the Background of Aging Population with Lower Fertility

近年来,我国东北地区持续的超低生育率、日益严重的人口老龄化以及青年劳动力外流等人口问题不断加剧,对东北地区的劳动力供给水平产生了极大影响。本文在对东北地区少子老龄化现状进行描述的基础上,首先运用因素分解法分析了东北地区1990年-2017年劳动力供给的影响因素,总结了劳动力供给的变化情况,然后运用队列要素法预测了2020年-2050年劳动年龄人口及劳动力供给的变动。研究发现:不同时期人口学因素和非人口学因素对东北地区劳动力供给的影响存在差异性。东北地区的劳动力供给早期在很大程度上依靠年轻型的人口年龄结构增长,而随着人口年龄结构向老年型转变,东北地区劳动力供给也将大幅减少。无论采用哪种生育率预测方案,我国东北地区的劳动力供给在未来一段时间内都将大幅下降。

Issues concerning demographics in Northeast China,such as the continuous ultra-low fertility rate,the increasingly serious aging population and the outf low of the young labor force,have a great impact on the labor supply in Northeast China.Based on the description of the aging population with lower fertility in Northeast China,this paper firstly analyzes the influencing factors of labor supply in Northeast China from 1990 to 2017 by factor decomposition method,summarizes the changes of labor supply,and then predicts the changes of working-age population and labor supply from 2020 to 2050 by using the cohort factor method.It is found that the influence of demographic factors and non-demographic factors on labor supply in Northeast China is different during different periods.In the early stage,the supply of labor force in Northeast China largely depends on the growth of the young population age structure.But with the changing of the population age structure into the old one,the supply of labor force in Northeast China will also decline sharply.No matter which fertility prediction method is adopted,the labor supply in Northeast China will decline sharply in the coming period.