转型期人口流动与信任变迁(2005—2015)

Population mobility and change of trust during the transition period(2005—2015)

基于中国综合社会调查(CGSS)2005、2015以及全国1%人口抽样调查数据,运用多层线性回归、混合线性回归等方法探讨2005至2015年间人口流动对于中国人信任结构的重塑,以及户籍在其中的调节作用,可以发现:社会转型期的人口流动改变了人们的交往模式,促进了信任结构的变迁,但由于户籍制度的存在,这一变迁在常住人口与流动人口中有不同的表现。相对于2005年,2015年常住人口的一般信任在上升,特殊信任则不断下降,而流动人口的一般信任与特殊信任在此期间都呈不断下降趋势。前人关于现代化促进信任结构变迁的理论忽略了户籍制度的独特作用。

Based on the data from the China General Social Survey(CGSS)in 2005 and 2015 and a sampling survey of 1%the Chinese population,the paper uses multi-layer linear regression and mixed linear regression to explore how population mobility has reshaped the trust structure of Chinese people during the decade from 2005 to 2015 and the moderating role of household registration system.The paper finds that population mobility during the social transition period has changed people’s interaction patterns and contributed to the change of trust structure.However,due to the existence of the household registration system,this change has different manifestations in the local and mobile populations.Compared with 2005,the general level of trust of locals went up and the special trust declined in 2015,while the general and special trust of the mobile population both showed a declining trend during the decade.The literature which argued that modernization has promoted structural changes in trust ignores the unique role that the household registration system plays.