三组火山强迫资料差异及其对模式模拟结果的影响

Differences in three sets of volcanic forcing data and their impacts on climate model simulation

Gao2008、Crowley2013和Sigl2015火山强迫资料,均基于极地冰芯重建。由于每组重建使用的冰芯数据和分析方法等不同,因此结果存在差异,从而影响气候模式应用。文中详细梳理三组火山强迫资料在原始冰芯数据、信号识别提取和沉积通量计算等方面的差异;介绍重建中涉及的对未知火山事件发生季节、纬度及从极地硫酸盐沉积通量向平流层辐射强迫通量转换等所做的假设;归纳资料中存在的共性问题。在此基础上,总结重建不确定性对模式应用的影响,希望为涉及气候模式的研究工作提供从气候系统外强迫资料解读或审视气候变化模拟与影响评估的视角,更好为气候模拟和预测服务。

Gao2008,Crowley2013 and Sigl2015,the three groups of volcanic forcing data are based on polar icecore reconstruction.Because every reconstruction uses different ice core records and analysis methods,the results are different,which will affect climate models application.This paper combed in detail the differences among the three groups regarding the original ice-core data used for reconstruction,the volcanic signal identification and extraction methodology,and estimation of ice-sheet sulfate deposition;introduced the assumptions made about the season and latitude of unknown volcanic events,and the conversion from polar sulfate deposition flux to stratospheric radiative flux,etc.;and summarized the common problems in the volcano chronologies.By summarizing the impact of these reconstruction uncertainties on climate model application,this study provides additional perspectives on model-proxy comparison and climate impact assessments on historical volcanism.