面向2035的我国高等教育规模、结构与教育经费预测

The Scale and Structure of Higher Education and Public Educational Funding in China:An Empirical Prediction till 2035

伴随我国高等教育进入普及化阶段,未来高等教育的发展走向成为社会广泛关注的问题。本研究结合供给和需求两个维度,采用统计和计量回归方法,对2021—2035年我国高等教育发展的规模、结构和教育经费进行了预测。根据实证分析结果,本研究建议我国高等教育毛入学率的适宜目标为:2025年为60%左右;2030年为67%左右;2035年为75%左右。我国高等教育学历结构中研究生占比的适宜目标为:2025年为16%;2030年为18%;2035年为20%。我国财政性教育经费占GDP比例的适宜目标为:2025年为4.4%;2030年为4.5%;2035年为4.6%。

With China’s higher education entering the stage of popularization,its future development has become a widespread concern.Combining the dimensions of supply and demand,this paper employs the statistical and econometric regression models to predict the scale and structure of higher education and public educational funding in China from 2021 to 2035.According to the empirical results,it is appropriate for the gross enrolment ratio of higher education in China to reach about 60%in 2025,67%in 2030,and 75%in 2035.For the proportion of graduate enrolment,it is suitable to reach about 16%in 2025,18%in 2030,and 20%in 2035.For the government expenditure on education as a percentage of GDP,it is suitable to reach about 4.4%in 2025,4.5%in 2030,and 4.6%in 2035.