基于太阳能循环的水利枢纽梯级调度发电最大负荷概率预测

Prediction of Maximum Load Probability of Cascaded Dispatch Power Generation of Hydro-junctions Based on Solar Cycle

传统的水利枢纽梯级调度发电最大负荷概率预测方法的有效率和预测精准率较低。基于太阳能循环,研究了一种新的水利枢纽梯级调度发电最大负荷概率预测方法。收集水利枢纽梯级调度发电数据,整合具体的发电信息与水利枢纽的相关发电条件,调节关联发电数据得到最大负荷存在条件,及时记录并存储分析数据。设置标准参数作为数据参照信息,形成概率数据预测图,实现对水利枢纽梯级调度发电最大负荷的概率预测研究。结果表明,预测方法在一定程度上扩大数据的收集范围,增强了主系统的数据收集力度,避免了不必要的浪费,具有更高的研究价值。

Traditional prediction methods for maximum load probability of hydro-junction cascade dispatch power generation have a low efficiency and prediction accuracy.Based on the solar cycle,a new maximum load probability method was developed.Hydro-junction cascade dispatch generation data were collected,specific power generation information and relevant power generation conditions were integrated,associated power generation data were adjusted to obtain the conditions for the existence of maximum load,and analysis data were recorded and stored in time.Standard parameters were set as data reference information to generate a probability data prediction chart,so as to realize the research on maximum load probability prediction.Experimental results showed that the proposed prediction method could expand the scope of data collection to a certain extent,enhance data collection strength of the host system and avoid unnecessary waste,and it had a quite high research value.