晋中市终霜冻发生特征及其对果树的影响

Occurrence Characteristics of Final Frost and Its Influence on Fruit Trees in Jinzhong City

采用数理统计对比法,分析了1972—2020年晋中市终霜冻的时域分布特征及对果树花期霜冻灾害发生概率的影响。结果表明:晋中市近50年来平均终霜日为4月30日;终霜冻总体上北部晚南部早、山区晚平川早,海拔越高,终霜冻结束越晚;春季气温呈现变暖趋势,终霜冻日期呈现出提前趋势;大部分年份霜冻灾害较轻,重度霜冻灾害出现的概率一般为2%~9%;在果树盛花期(4月),4月14日之前终霜冻出现概率最低,西部平川区及昔阳县4月15日至5月1日终霜冻出现概率最高,东部山区5月2日之后终霜冻出现概率最高。

Using mathematical statistics and comparison method,the paper analyzed the time-domain distribution characteristics of final frost in Jinzhong City and its influence on occurrence probability of frost disaster of fruit trees during flowering period from 1972 to 2020.The results showed that the average final frost date in Jinzhong City in recent 50 years was April 30;on the whole,the final frost was late in the north and early in the south,late in the mountain area and early in the plain;the higher the altitude was,the later the final frost ended.In spring,the temperature showed a warming trend,and the date of final frost showed an earlier trend.In most years,the frost disaster was relatively light,and the probability of severe frost disaster was generally 2%-9%.In the full flowering period of fruit trees(April),the probability of final frost was the lowest before April 14,the probability of final frost from April 15 to May 1 was the highest in the plain of western Jinzhong and Xiyang County,and the probability of final frost after May 2 was the highest in eastern mountainous areas.