中国社会保障支出对收入分配差距与经济增长的动态冲击效应

Dynamic Shock Effects of China’s Social Security Expenditure on Income Distribution Gap and Economic Growth——Empirical Analysis Based on TVP-SV-VAR Model

本文从社会公平和经济效率双重视角出发,利用1978—2018年时间序列数据,应用基于马尔科夫链蒙特卡洛模拟的带有随机波动的时变参数向量自回归模型,分析了中国自改革开放以来社会保障支出对收入分配差距与经济增长的动态冲击效应。结果表明:社会保障支出始终存在逆向的收入分配效应与正向的经济增长效应,且随时间的推移均表现出了较强的动态时变性,两者波动趋向同步,呈现出近似倒U型的非线性动态变化过程;社会保障支出对收入差距的逆向调节效应具有“见效快”的特点,短期影响效应较强,而对经济增长的促进作用存在时间滞后性,中期影响效应较强;在中国社会保障改革发展的不同阶段,社会保障支出收入分配效应与经济增长效应的大小与持续时间均存在显著差异,随着社会保障发展阶段的变迁,整体呈现出了影响效应不断增强,持续时间不断变长的演变规律。

From the dual perspectives of social equity and economic efficiency,this paper analyzes dynamic shock effects of China’s social security expenditure on the income distribution gap and economic growth since the reform and opening up,using the time series data from 1978 to 2018 and applying the TVP-SV-VAR model based on the MCMC simulation.The results show that the social security expenditure always has the reverse income distribution effect and the positive economic growth effect,and both of them show strong dynamic time-varying with the passage of time,and their fluctuations tend to be synchronized,showing an approximate inverted U-shaped nonlinear dynamic change process.The reverse adjustment effect of social security expenditures on the income gap has the characteristics of“quick effect”with strong short-term effect,while the promotion effect of social security expenditures on economic growth has time lag with strong medium-term effect.There are significant differences in the size and duration of income distribution effect and economic growth effect of social security expenditures in different stages of China's social security reform and development,of which the overall influence effect is continuously enhanced and the duration is constantly longer with the change of social security development stage.