分权时序与经济增长

The Squence of Decentralization and Economic Growth

分权理论一直认为分权会促进增长,但在经验上,分权改革在不同地区却有差异显著的增长效应,为何会有这种情况?本文基于中国省际多样化权力下放实践这一自然实验,从分权时序的角度探究分权时序选择差异是否是其中的一个原因。所谓分权时序,即各省在推进分权改革时选择行政分权和财政分权的次序安排。研究发现,分权改革如果选择行政分权先行,相较于财政分权先行或行政分权与财政分权并行,更能促进县域经济增长,这一结论在行政分权一次性全面推开的地区更加明显。不过,分权时序的增长效应会受到权力下放的内容和权力相伴的责任是否明确,以及分权制度中是否有激励性措施影响,对于行政分权先行的地区,如果下放的行政权力中包含有可以增收的实质性权力,分权的增长效应就相对较弱,即出现所谓的"权力诅咒",对于财政分权先行的地区,如果分权制度中设定明确的支出责任和激励性措施,分权的增长效应就相对更强。本文的研究发现不仅为解释分权的增长效应差异提供了一个新视角,对分权理论是一个重要补充,而且为中国在新时代深化分权体制改革提供了一种选择路径。

Decentralization theory has always believed that decentralization will promote growth.However,the empirical experience shows that decentralization reform has different effects on growth in different regions.Why happens that?Based on the natural experiment of China's inter-provincial decentralization practice,this paper explores whether the difference of decentralization timing choice is one of the reasons.The so-called time sequence of decentralization means that each province chooses the order of administrative decentralization and fiscal decentralization when promoting the reform of decentralization.It is found that if the decentralization reform chooses administrative decentralization first,it can promote the economic growth better than fiscal decentralization first or administrative decentralization and fiscal decentralization in parallel.This conclusion is more obvious in regions where administrative decentralization is comprehensively promoted at one time.However,the growth effect of decentralization time sequence is affected by the content of decentralization and whether the responsibilities associated with power are clear,as well as whether there are incentive measures in the decentralization system.For areas where administrative decentralization comes first,if the decentralized administrative power contains substantive power that can increase income,the growth effect of decentralization is relatively weak,which is the so-called"power curse".For regions where fiscal decentralization takes the lead,if clear expenditure responsibility and incentive measures are set in the decentralization system,the growth effect of decentralization will be relatively strong.The findings of this paper not only provide a new perspective to explain the different effect of decentralization on growth,but also provide an important supplement to the decentralization theory and an alternative path for China to deepen the reform of decentralization system in New Era.