河北省城镇化进程与碳排放的脱钩关系

Decoupling Relationship between Urbanization and Carbon Emission in Hebei Province

为研究河北省1991-2017年间城镇化进程与碳排放的关系,基于对河北省1991-2017年的各类能源消耗量和城镇人口占总人口比重指标的计算,并对二者之间的脱钩关系进行实证分析;对经济结构、技术水平、人口结构和碳排放量之间的长期协整关系进行了研究。结果表明河北省的城镇化进程和碳排放量之间目前还没有实现理想的脱钩关系,但是发展趋势和路径显示,随着技术水平的提高,河北省的碳排放量在减少,即技术水平对二氧化碳排放量有着负向影响,技术的增长有利于碳排放的减少和环境的改善。最后基于实证分析和研究结论提出了相关的对策和建议。

In order to explore the relationship between the urbanization process and carbon emissions in Hebei province,this paper first calculate the indexes of various energy consumption and the proportion of urban population in the total population in Hebei province from 1991 to 2017,and conduct an empirical analysis on the decoupling between the two variables.Then we research the long-term co-integration relationship among economic structure,technological level,population structure and carbon emissions.Results show that in Hebei province,the urbanization and carbon emissions still haven’t achieved the perfect decoupling relationship.However,according to the trend of development,we find that with the increase of technology level,the carbon emissions in Hebei province are decreasing.It means that the technology level has a negative impact on carbon dioxide emissions,and the technological growth is conducive to reducing carbon emissions and improving the environment.Finally,based on the empirical analysis and research conclusion,we put forward the relevant countermeasures and suggestions.