企业所有制结构与中国区域产业演化路径

Firm ownership structure and regional industrial development paths in China

以技术关联性与技术复杂性为标准划分出四类区域产业演化路径,利用2000—2016年中国海关进出口贸易数据库,集成新产业识别方法,考察了中国不同地区产业演化路径的差异性并分析了企业所有制对区域产业演化路径的影响。研究发现:(1)中国区域产业演化具有路径依赖性。2000—2016年,路径依赖型新产业占新产业总数的70%左右,路径突破型新产业占30%左右。就四类区域产业演化路径而言,在路径依赖型新产业中,技术复杂度高于和低于其母产业的约各占一半;在路径突破型新产业中,约2/3的技术复杂度高于其所在城市平均水平。(2)从空间格局来看,中国发达地区如东部沿海发达城市和中西部省会城市产业发展更具路径突破性,落后地区如中西部普通地级市更具路径依赖性。东部沿海发达地区和中西省会城市发展出更多路径突破且技术复杂性提高型新产业,而中西部地区分化出更多路径依赖且技术复杂性降低型新产业。(3)就技术关联性分化而言,外资企业推动区域产业发展的路径突破,民营企业越多的地区发展出更多路径依赖型新产业。(4)就不同所有制企业与四类区域产业演化路径的关系而言,外资企业尽管有助于推动区域产业发展的路径突破,但路径突破型新产业的技术复杂度往往低于所在城市平均水平。国有企业利用现有知识与技术发展技术复杂更高的路径依赖型新产业,而民营企业利用现有知识与技术发展技术复杂度更低的路径依赖型新产业。(5)当然,本文也发现近年来东部沿海地区一些民营企业开始推动路径依赖且技术复杂性提高型产业分化。本文研究结论可对中国区域产业新旧动能转换提供较大启发。

This study divides regional industrial development paths into four types on the basis of technological relatedness and technological complexity, and uses a new method to identify new development paths based on data from China Customs Database from 2000 to 2016. Then this paper analyzes China’s regional industrial development paths and investigates their relationships with regional ownership structure. The results show that China’s regional industrial development is characterized by path dependence, with path-dependent new industries accounting for about 70% in the total from 2000 to 2016 and path-defying ones roughly 30%. In terms of regional development paths, nearly half of the path-dependent new industries have a higher technological complexity than their incumbent mother industries and nearly two thirds of the path-defying new industries have a higher technological complexity than their corresponding cities’ average. Developed regions in coastal China and provincial capital cities in central and western regions have a higher proportion of path-defying new industries in the total, while developing regions have a higher percentage of path-dependent new industries. Developed regions diversify into more path-defying new industries with a higher technological complexity than cities’ average, while developing regions diversify into more path-dependent new industries with a lower technological complexity than their incumbent mother industries. Regarding the relationship between regional ownership structure and regional industrial development paths, regions with more foreign-owned enterprises develop more path-defying new industries with a lower technological complexity than cities’ average.Regions with more state-owned enterprises diversify into more path-dependent new industries with a higher technological complexity than their incumbent mother industries, while regions with more private enterprises diversify into more path-dependent new industries with a lower technological complexity than their incumbent mother industries. It is also found in this paper that private firms in eastern China started to promote the emergence of path-dependent new industries with a higher technological complexity in recent years. These findings have significant implications for the regional relatedness and complexity diversification theoretically and can provide suggestions for policy makers in practice. It is suggested that measures should be taken to deal with the overly path-dependence of regional industrial evolution in the central and western regions of China.