稳定经济的财政政策选择研究——基于财政稳定规则福利效应视角

A Study on the Choice of Fiscal Policy to Stabilize the Economy:Based on the Welfare Effect of Fiscal Stabilizing Rules

近几年各种不确定性因素频发,稳定经济、防止经济大幅下滑成为各国政府的首要经济目标。虽然稳定经济增长对整个社会发展的重要性突出,但是政策制定部门同时应注意稳定经济增长所产生的代价,以尽可能低的代价实现提振经济活力的目标。运用社会福利损失来度量财政政策稳定经济系统所付出的代价大小,通过模拟不同财政稳定规则下社会福利损失的变化,结果表明:(1)单纯稳定产出水平的财政政策将付出巨大的社会福利代价,因此财政稳定政策应包含产出水平稳定与政府债务规模稳定两个方面的目标;(2)财政政策对产出水平和政府债务规模波动的灵敏性与财政政策工具组合是影响财政稳定政策代价的两个重要因素;(3)与货币稳定政策相比,财政稳定政策的福利效应更为明显。

Since the outbreak of the new coronavirus epidemic,stabilizing the economy and preventing a sharp economic downturn have become the primary economic goals of governments of various countries.Although stabilizing the economy is of great importance to the development of the whole society,policy-making departments should also pay attention to the cost of stabilizing the economy,and should achieve the goal of stabilizing the economy at the lowest possible cost.We adopt the social welfare loss to measure the cost of the fiscal stabilizing policy and measures the cost of social welfare losses,and simulate the changes in social welfare losses under different fiscal stabilizing rules,the article finds that:(1)Fiscal stabilizing policy with the simple goal of stabilizing the aggregate output will pay the huge social welfare cost.Therefore,fiscal stability policy should include both goals of output stability and government debt stability.(2)Fiscal policy's sensitivity to the fluctuations of aggregate output and government debt and combination of fiscal policy instruments are two important factors affecting the cost of fiscal stabilizing policy.(3)Compared with monetary stabilizing policy,the welfare effect of fiscal stabilizing policy is much more obvious.