基于风电机组启停频度的风电间歇性定量刻画及分析

QUANTITATIVE MEASUREMENT AND ANALYSIS OF WIND POWER INTERMITTENCE BASED ON START-STOP FREQUENCY OF WIND TURBINES

对风电间歇性进行定量分析并掌握其特性是风电安全高效并网研究的基础工作。首先对风电间歇性现象进行定义和描述,并提出基于风电机组单位时间启停频度作为风电间歇性定量刻画指标。在此基础上,以中国北方地区2个典型风电场为研究案例,采用数理统计的方法分析风电间歇性的季节、昼夜变化特性以及启停频度的概率分布。研究发现,不同地区的风电间歇性季节变化特性存在较大差异,而昼夜特性则存在相似性,白天风电间歇性强于夜间。采用纵向时间序列分析的方法统计不同时刻风电机组启停频度的概率分布,并利用Exponential 2函数进行拟合,并进一步研究拟合函数对不同年份数据的适应性。最后,探讨该间歇性定量刻画指标在实际中的应用可行性。

The quantitative analysis of wind power intermittency is the basic work for wind power integration with high efficiency and safety.Firstly,the frequency of start-stop of wind turbine in unit time is defined as a new parameter to describe the intermittence of wind power.Based on the metric,the data from two typical wind farms that located in the northern area of China is used to analyze the seasonal and nycterohemeral variation characteristics of wind power intermittency.The probability distribution of the frequency of startstop of wind turbine is assessed in this research as well.The results show that intermittent characteristics has a large seasonal variation difference but similar nycterohemeral variations charactiscs.Moreover,wind power intermittency is generally stronger in daytime.The longitudinal time series analysis method is used to assess the probability distribution of the start-stop frequency of wind turbines at different time.The Exponential2 function is used to fit this distribution.Next,function adaptability of data from different years are further studied.Finally,the application feasibility of this parameter in real scene is discussed.