住房、居留意愿与流动人口家庭消费研究

Research on the Housing, Settlement Intention and Household Consumption of Migrant Workers

在构建国内大循环为主体、国内国际双循环相互促进的新发展格局的背景下,我国政府创造性地提出需求侧改革,以释放消费潜力。基于此背景,本文使用2017年中国流动人口动态监测调查数据,以流动务工人员的主观买房困难评价作为住房问题的代理变量,研究住房、居留意愿与家庭消费水平的之间的关系,结果发现:居留意愿会显著提高流动人口的家庭消费水平,但是主观买房困难评价会显著降低其长期居留意愿。进一步地,主观买房困难评价对不同居留意愿流动人口的家庭消费的影响存在差异,收入提高会中和买房困难对家庭消费的消极影响。本文建议要坚持优化收入分配改革、提升流动人口的收入水平;改革房地产市场,优化住房支出比,强调租售同权;完善流动人口的社会保障政策,放宽落户限制,提升流动人口居留意愿,释放流动人口消费潜能。

In the context of building a "dual circulation" development pattern in which domestic economic cycle plays a leading role while international economic cycle remains its extension and supplement,the Chinese government creatively proposed demand-side reforms to release consumption potential.Based on this background,the paper uses the 2017 China Migrants Dynamic Survey to study the relationship among the housing,settlement intention and household consumption of migrant workers.The result suggested that the settlement intention of the migrant workers was significantly positively correlated to their household consumption,but the difficulty of buying a house will significantly reduce the settlement intention.Furthermore,it was found that the impact of buying-housing difficulty on the household consumption varies between the migrant workers with different settlement intentions,and the income will neutralize the negative impact of difficulty in buying a house on household consumption.The following suggestions are put forward:insisting on optimizing income distribution reforms and increasing the income level of the migrant workers,improving the social security policies of the migrant workers and relaxing restrictions on settlement to increase the settlement intention of the migrant workers;reforming the real estate market to optimize the housing expenditure ratio,thus to release the consumption potential of the migrant workers.