收益率曲线控制的历史演进、理论基础及影响

The History,Theoretical Basis and Influence of Yield Curve Control

近期收益率曲线控制问题引起业界广泛关注。为此,全面回顾了收益率曲线控制的历史,并阐述了收益率曲线控制的思想渊源、存在的争议及传导机制,以构建收益率曲线控制的理论基础。收益率曲线控制影响经济增长的传导机制可能有信号效应、组合再平衡效应、流量效应、财富效应。我国未来如果广泛实施收益率曲线控制可能会产生以下影响:一是促进经济复苏,二是资产价格大幅上涨,三是金融风险加大,四是宏观杠杆率大幅上升,五是损害央行信誉。

Recently,the issue of yield curve control has attracted widespread attention.This article first comprehensively reviews the history of yield curve control.Afterwards,the ideological origins,existing controversies and transmission mechanism of the yield curve control were elaborated from the theoretical level,and the theoretical basis of the yield curve control was constructed.There are four possible transmission mechanisms of the yield curve control affecting economic growth:one is the signal effect,the other is the portfolio rebalancing effect,the third is the flow effect,and the fourth is the wealth effect.If the yield curve control is widely implemented in the future,it may have a broad impact.The first is to promote economic recovery;the second is that asset prices may rise sharply;the third is that financial risks may rise;the fourth is that the macro leverage ratio may rise sharply;the fifth is to damage the reputation of the central bank.At present,the academic circles still lack understanding of the yield curve control,and further research is still needed in the future.