划转国有股能化解养老金支付危机吗?

Can the Transfer of State-Owned Shares Resolve the Pension Payment Crisis?

基于精算模型分析划转国有股对养老保险基金的影响,以期化解老龄化带来的养老金支付危机,促进养老保险基金长期平衡。研究发现:划转10%国有股使基金开始出现累计赤字的时点延迟;在此基础上引入社保征收体制改革、延迟退休年龄政策,能进一步提高基金可持续性,此时划转国有股的最低比例降至0.56%~4.68%后,仍可实现基金收支平衡的目标。为有效缩小养老金缺口,应尽快落实划转国有股充实社保基金政策,并辅以其他改善基金支付能力的措施。

Based on the actuarial models,this paper analyzes the impact of transferring state-owned shares to pension insurance fund,so as to resolve the pension payment crisis caused by aging and promote the long-term balance of pension insurance fund.The study found that the transfer of 10%of state-owned shares can delay the time when the fund begins to accumulate deficits;on this basis,the introduction of the social security collection system reform and the postponement of the retirement age policy can further improve the sustainability of the fund.At this time,after the minimum proportion of transferred state-owned shares is reduced to 0.56%-4.68%,the goal of fund balance can still be achieved.In order to effectively narrow the pension gap,the policy of transferring state-owned shares to enrich the social security fund should be implemented as soon as possible,supplemented by other measures to improve the fund's ability to pay.