人口老龄化对技术创新的时空异质性效应研究

Analysis on the Spatiotemporal Heterogeneity Effect of Population Aging on Technological Innovation

基于时空异质性视角,依据省级面板数据,考量人口老龄化对技术创新的影响。结果显示:人口老龄化对技术创新的影响呈时空异质性,由于存在多重效应叠加,在全国层面统计上不显著。中西部地区表现为抑制作用,东部地区表现出促进作用,且在考虑了阶段差异和空间因素后依然显著;人口老龄化对技术创新的边际影响表现出阶段异质性,在创新水平较低时影响不显著,但随着创新水平的提升逐步增强;老龄化的技术创新效应强度在不同维度下差异显著,在经济维度下作用更为明显。

Based on the perspective of spatiotemporal heterogeneity,this paper uses provincial panel data to investigate the impact of population aging on technological innovation.The empirical results show that,the impact of population aging on technological innovation is not statistically significant as a whole due to the superposition of multiple effects.Specifically,the impact of population aging on technological innovation is characterized by regional heterogeneity,which is inhibited in the central and western regions,but promoted in the eastern part,and this effect exists after considering the stage difference and spatial factors;the marginal impact of population aging on innovation shows stage heterogeneity,which is not significant when the innovation level is low,but gradually increases with the improvement of innovation level;the intensity of technological innovation effect of aging is significant different in different dimensions,especially in the economic dimension.