初创期大型客机国际适航认证风险传播的系统动力学建模

A System Dynamics Modeling on Risk Evolution of Airworthiness Certificate in the Initial Stage of Large Passenger Aircraft

基于我国大型客机初创期国际适航认证的特殊背景,研究了适航认证风险传播的动力学问题。首先,通过梳理初创期大型客机国际适航认证的关键问题,从流程风险和隐性竞争方面研究了适航认证的风险因素;其次,研究关键利益相关者的利益博弈对适航认证风险传播的影响,并建立分散决策及集中决策情形下最优技术开放程度和最优技术努力程度的分析模型;进一步针对国际适航认证的多风险因素,建立了适航认证风险传播系统动力学模型,得出了主制造商能力随机及动态提升情形下适航认证风险的复杂传播机制及利益相关者最优决策;最后,提出我国适航认证风险传播的控制策略及建议。

From the perspective of airworthiness certificatein the initial stage of large passenger aircraft,the risk evolution mechanism of airworthiness certificate based on system dynamics,was studied.Firstly,clarifying the key issues of international airworthiness certificate in the initial stage of large passenger aircraft was focused on,and then identifying the risk of airworthiness certificate and the game between different stakeholders based on tacit competition. Secondly,the game models were established under scenario of centralized decision and decentralized decision,the optimal degree of technology openness of the advanced countries and the optimal technology effort degree of the main manufacturer are obtained.The risk feedback mechanism of airworthiness certificate risk was analyzed.Lastly,a system dynamics model for risk evolution of airworthiness certificate was established,and dynamic simulation of airworthiness risk propagation under different scenarios was carried out. The study reveals the complex communication mechanism of risk evolution in airworthiness certificate,and the optimal decision-making rules of stakeholders are demonstrated in case of random and dynamic improvement of the main manufacturer’sability.Finally,the control strategies and suggestions for the risk propagation of airworthiness are put forward.