中国债券市场信用风险回顾与前瞻

Review and Prospect of Credit Risk in China’s Bond Market

本文对2020年债券市场违约情况及特点进行了回顾总结。全年债券市场新增违约主体数量有所减少,但违约规模大幅增加;违约企业未表现出明显的行业特点,但国企违约占比明显提升;债券到期处置形式也趋于多样化。虽然新冠疫情给企业带来了较大的经营压力,但本文认为2020年企业发生违约的主要原因还在于企业内部长期问题积累的显现,包括自身经营资质弱化、投资策略不当、公司治理存在瑕疵、"母弱子强"等。最后,本文展望了2021年债券市场信用风险情况。

This paper reviews the characteristics of bond defaults in 2020. The number of companies involved in new defaults in the bond market decreased, but the scale of these defaults increased significantly. There are no special industrial characteristics among defaulting firms, but the proportion of defaults by stateowned enterprises has risen significantly. Although COVID-19 has placed additional strains on enterprises, the main reason for bond defaults in 2020 was the accumulation of long-term internal problems within these enterprises, including management weaknesses, ill-suited investment strategies, poor corporate governance, and special circumstances regarding parent-subsidiary relationships. Lastly, this paper looks at the credit risks in the bond market in 2021.