基于GM(1,1)模型的阜平县土地生态安全预警与分析

Early warning and analysis of land ecological security in Fuping County based on GM(1,1)model

基于2012—2017年阜平县土地生态安全的相关统计数据,通过PSR模型构建土地生态安全预警指标体系,采用GM(1,1)灰色系统理论模型对2018—2022年的土地生态安全变化进行预警,结合预警指数及评判标准对2012—2022年的土地生态安全状况做出预警分析,为阜平县的土地生态安全调控提出政策参考。研究结果如下:(1)阜平县土地生态安全综合预警指数从2012年0.3361(重警)上升到2017年0.5556(中警),土地生态安全状况不断好转;(2)2012—2017年阜平县土地生态系统的压力层预警指数、状态层预警指数及响应层预警指数均呈上升趋势;(3)2018—2022年土地生态安全预警值分别为0.5769(中警)、0.6260(轻警)、0.6793(轻警)、0.7371(轻警)、0.7998(轻警),表明未来5年阜平县土地生态安全的状况将持续改善。

Based on the relevant statistical data of land ecological security in Fuping County from 2012 to 2017,the PSR model was used to construct a land ecological security early warning indicator system,and the GM(1,1)gray system theory model was used to carry out early warning analysis to the changes in land ecological security from 2018 to 2022.The early warning index and evaluation criteria were combined to make an early warning analysis of the land ecological security status from 2012 to 2022,thus to provide a policy reference for the regulation of land ecological security in Fuping County.The results of the research are as follows:(1)The comprehensive early warning index of land ecological security in Fuping County increased from 0.3361(heavy warning)in 2012 to 0.5556(medium warning)in 2017,and the status of land ecological security continued to improve;(2)During 2012-2017,the pressure layer early warning index,state layer early warning index and response layer early warning index of the land ecosystem in Fuping County all showed an upward trend;(3)The early warning values of land ecological security from 2018 to 2022 were 0.5769(medium warning),0.6260(early warning),0.6793(early warning),0.7371(early warning),and 0.7998(early warning),indicating that the land ecological security in Fuping County will continue improving in the next five years.