基于灵敏度分析的可靠性增长规划优化设计

Optimization Design of Reliability-Growth Plan Based on Sensitivity Analysis

为降低可靠性增长试验失败的风险,提升预测方法的连续系统规划模型(PM2模型)的普适性,首先基于PM2数学模型推导了模型两个过程管理参数乘积的取值范围判别不等式;然后基于三种不同的试验增长率,对两个过程管理参数之乘积展开了灵敏度分析,结果表明两参数乘积存在特定的下阈值;最后实例验证了在可靠性增长试验中,两个过程管理参数的乘积必须大于其下阈值。研究表明,通过预判并调整PM2模型的参数取值,可有效降低可靠性增长试验失败的风险。

In order to reduce the risk of failure of the reliability growth test and improve the universality of the continuous system planning model(PM2model)of the prediction method,firstly,based on the PM2mathematical model,the discriminant inequality of the value range of the product of the two process management parameters of the model is derived.Then,based on three different experimental growth rates,a sensitivity analysis was carried out on the product of the two process management parameters,and the results showed that the product of the two parameters has a specific lower threshold.Finally,the example verifies that in the reliability growth test,the product of the two process management parameters must be greater than its lower threshold.Research shows that by predicting and adjusting the parameter values of the PM2model,the risk of failure of the reliability growth test can be effectively reduced.