人口结构变化、外资进入与房价——基于全球视角的分析

Demographic Changes,Foreign Investment and Housing Prices:Analysis From the Global Perspective

文章利用1970~2017年的跨国数据,采用动态面板模型研究了在外资流入背景下,人口结构变化对房价的影响以及外资进入所引起的调节效应和区域异质性。实证结果发现,人口老龄化对房价具有下行压力,但外资的流入一定程度上能够缓解这种负向影响;人口结构变化对房价的影响具有明显的区域异质性,亚洲国家受到的冲击要更大一些,但FDI的流入能够明显降低老龄化冲击对于亚洲国家房价的负向影响;相对于发展中国家,发达国家老龄化对房价的负向影响更大,而属于儒家文化圈的国家,人口老龄化程度的提升对于房价负向影响效果十分微弱;从FDI所引起的调节效应结果来看,FDI的流入能够明显降低老龄化冲击对于亚洲国家以及属于儒家文化圈的国家房价的负向影响。

Based on the transnational data from 1970 to 2017,this paper studies the impact of demographic changes on housing prices as well as the regulatory effect and regional heterogeneity caused by foreign investment against the background of foreign capital inflow by using the dynamic panel model.The empirical results show that the aging population structure has a downward pressure on housing prices,but the inflow of foreign capital can alleviate this negative impact to some extent.The impact of demographic change on housing prices has obvious regional heterogeneity.Asian countries are more affected by this impact,but the inflow of FDI can significantly reduce the negative impact of aging on housing prices in Asian countries.Compared with the developing countries,the aging of the developed countries exerts a greater negative impact on housing prices,while the negative impact of aging on housing prices is very weak in the countries belonging to the Confucian culture circle.From the results of the regulatory effect caused by FDI,the inflow of FDI can significantly reduce the negative impact of the aging shock on housing prices in Asian countries and the countries belonging to the Confucian cultural circle.